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2. Theory of Change

How to use this activity

This activity supports practical application of the concepts in your lesson.

  1. Download this activity as a docx file
  2. Work through the activity step by step. Keep your answers concise and focused
  3. Return to your lesson when you are done.

What to do: Build the logical chain from your training inputs to real-world impact, and surface the assumptions hiding at each link

Expected output: A one-page Theory of Change with a completed chain and documented assumptions

Approximate time: 20–30 minutes

Used in

Before you start

You will typically need:

  • Outputs from earlier activities (if applicable)
  • Notes from your current lesson
⬇ Download as .docx

Instructions

Your system map showed you the landscape your training sits in. Now trace the logic: how does what you do in the training room lead to change out in the world? A Theory of Change makes that logic explicit — and, more importantly, makes your assumptions visible so you can test them.

You'll work backwards from impact to inputs, filling in five links and the assumptions connecting them.

You will use

  • Your system map from Activity 1: System Map — specifically the actors, resources, and constraints you identified

If you already have a training

Step 1 — Build your chain from right to left

Start with the end: the real-world change your training contributes to. Then work backwards, filling in each link. This keeps you honest — it's easy to list activities you enjoy delivering, but harder to explain exactly how they lead to change.

Answer each prompt below, starting from Impact and working backwards:

  • Impact: What broad, real-world change does your training contribute to? (Not what happens in the room — what changes in the wider system afterwards.)
  • Outcomes: What do your learners do differently in their work or practice after the training? Be specific — "they do X" rather than "they understand X."
  • Outputs: What do learners produce or complete during the training that makes those outcomes possible?
  • Activities: What do learners actually do in your sessions to produce those outputs?
  • Inputs: What do you bring to make the activities possible? (Facilitators, materials, tools, institutional support, time.)

Step 2 — Surface your assumptions

For each arrow in the chain, answer: What has to be true for this step to lead to the next?

  • Inputs → Activities: What assumption are you making? How confident are you? How could you test or strengthen it?
  • Activities → Outputs: What assumption are you making? How confident are you? How could you test or strengthen it?
  • Outputs → Outcomes: What assumption are you making? How confident are you? How could you test or strengthen it?
  • Outcomes → Impact: What assumption are you making? How confident are you? How could you test or strengthen it?

Look at your system map. Do any of the constraints, missing resources, or fragile relationships you identified there threaten these assumptions? Flag them.

Step 3 — Diagnose and revise

Review your chain and assumptions together. Where is the logic weakest? Common failure points:

  • A leap from outputs to outcomes that assumes learners will apply skills without any follow-up support, or focus on motivation
  • Inputs that depend on resources your system map flagged as unavailable or unreliable
  • An impact statement that your training alone cannot realistically contribute to

Revise any links or assumptions that don't hold up. Update the table above — this is your working Theory of Change.

If you are creating a new training

You don't have an existing chain to diagnose, so you'll build one from scratch. The discipline is the same: start from impact and work backwards.

Step 1 — Define the change you want to contribute to

Look at your system map. What real-world change matters most in that system? Write a one-sentence impact statement:

  • Impact: ___

Step 2 — Work backwards through the chain

For each link, write 1–2 sentences:

  • Outcomes: For that impact to happen, what would your learners need to do differently in their work or practice after the training?
  • Outputs: What would learners need to produce or complete during the training to make those outcomes likely?
  • Activities: What would learners need to do in the sessions to produce those outputs?
  • Inputs: What would you need to bring — people, materials, tools, permissions, time — to make the activities possible? Check your system map for what's actually available.

Fill in the chain prompts from Step 1 above.

Step 3 — Surface your assumptions

Complete the assumptions prompts from Step 2 above. Since you're working from a blank slate, pay special attention to assumptions you're making about your learners — you haven't met them yet, so many of these will be guesses. Mark them honestly.

Translation to your learners

Look at your Outcomes answer. Does it describe change that is realistic and valued in your learners' actual context — or change that makes sense mainly from your perspective as the trainer?

Pick your most important outcome and pressure-test it:

  • Would your learners agree this is a meaningful change for them?
  • Do they have the authority, resources, and support to act on it once they leave the training?
  • What in their environment might prevent the outcome from happening, even if the training goes perfectly?

Revise the outcome if needed.

Power and positionality check

Your position — your expertise, institutional role, funding relationship, cultural background — shapes what you include in your theory of change and whose priorities it reflects. Consider:

  • What authority or expertise do you have that your learners don't — and how does that shape what you've prioritised in this chain?
  • Whose perspective is absent from your theory of change? Are there stakeholders or affected communities who would draw the chain differently?
  • If your learners designed this theory of change themselves, what would they change?

If these questions surface a gap, revise your chain or flag it as an assumption to test.

Context check

Return to your system map one more time. Identify the single biggest external constraint that could break your chain — something outside your control that your Theory of Change currently depends on. Write it down:

  • Biggest risk to the chain: ___
  • What you can do about it (if anything): ___

Reflection

What assumption surprised you most — either because you hadn't noticed it before, or because it's less solid than you'd assumed?

Reuse in later sections